Estimating R1S Delivery Timelines and Models based on Pre-Orders

R1S Delivery Estimates and Modeling based on pre-order

Looking at the pre-order trackers, reading released number on productions, promised realistic ramp, an estimate of when one might expect to be close to getting the anticipated email to start R1S delivery was worked out. It was assumed that this pre-order tracker only represented 1/18th of the full reservations. Two released QTR production numbers from R1T were used, and then a 20% per qtr increase as the qtrs roll on was assumed. The Blue line below estimates where in line one might be in a R1S queue based off their date. Assuming even distribution, if they fill sequentially, the green line shows a possible ramp and delivery.

It was noted that there are already several LE orders from 2020 with a October/December delivery estimate. It was also mentioned that Rivian is supposed to have some sort of delivery estimate displayed when one logs into their account by the end of this month. It was agreed that FIFO logic for order fulfillment would not be the case and should not be. It was also pointed out that Rivian has said multiple times that it will be based on location and other considerations.

The underlying assumption is that Rivian will deliver based on FIFO logic for order fulfillment. It is clear that that's not the case and should not be. From Rivian's perspective, it does not make sense for the business - both from servicing and marketing point of view. It was asked if it is a known fact that VIN's will be sequential for the R1S and not mixed with R1T, and not skipping digits ( less QA/Shipping issues).

The breakdown of model production ramping from 0% to 50% was discussed. With people who ordered in 2022 getting trucks and people waiting 4 years for an SUV, it was asked if they will push higher than 50% for a short time to clear out some of the oldest preorders. On the other side, it was noted that there is not a huge risk of them continuing to push more trucks than SUVs at this point due to both customer waits and ramping competition. Plus they need to get through ALL of the pre-March people so they can stop losing so much money on every vehicle.

Overall, it is difficult to predict exact timelines for R1S deliveries due to many variables such as cancellations, recession, location, model type, etc. However, with all these factors taken into consideration, it appears likely that those who have placed pre-orders will receive their vehicles within a reasonable timeframe. Rivian has been very transparent about their production and delivery plans, so customers should be able to get a better idea of when they can expect their vehicles in the coming months.